Republicans Will Win the Foreign Policy Debate in 2016, Unless They Blow It
March 17, 2015 in Economics
A. Trevor Thrall
Republicans should dominate the 2016 presidential foreign policy debate, but only if they can avoid shooting themselves in the foot. Winning this debate could be crucial given the recent Huff Post/YouGov poll that found more Americans think the 2016 presidential election will focus on foreign policy issues than domestic issues. Historically speaking this is unlikely; elections almost always turn on the economy and domestic issues. But if the polls prove prophetic, it gives the GOP the advantage. Maybe.
Why Republicans Should Win the Foreign Policy Debate
Though it’s too early to know which Republican will win the party’s nomination, the general arguments don’t change much for any of the current frontrunners.
First, Republicans will benefit from the fact that Obama’s foreign policy approval ratings have not broken 50% during his second term; they sat at 37% a January 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Since 2012, after seven years of favoring Democrats in the wake of the Iraq War, Americans again have more trust in Republicans to handle foreign policy. In short, Obama’s incumbency will be a liability for any Democratic nominee no matter how much he or she tries to separate from the administration.
“Republicans have a cornucopia of legitimate criticisms to fuel the attack.”
Moreover, Republicans have a cornucopia of legitimate criticisms to fuel the attack. The public, though not in agreement about what should happen, clearly believes that Obama should have been doing more to manage the turmoil in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine„ Iran, Nigeria…the list goes on. With so much to be unhappy about, Republican contenders should have little trouble making the general case that it is time for a change.
As a bonus, the Huff Post/YouGov poll also found that Obama’s handling of foreign policy is tied with immigration for what upsets Republicans most about his presidency. Coupled with the Republican Congress’ ability to keep Clinton’s email and Benghazi role in the voters’ minds, this means foreign policy should be useful for motivating the Republican base in 2016 and generating donations even if it doesn’t woo any swing votes.
Why It Might Not Be So Easy…
Hillary Clinton, almost certain to be the Democratic nominee, is no Barack Obama when it comes to foreign policy. When she left her post as Secretary of State, Clintonenjoyed a 69% approval rating for her performance; just 25% disapproved. Republican frothing about Benghazi and private emails aside, most …read more
Source: OP-EDS
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