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New Analysis: 2018's Blue Wave Must Be as Big as What Followed Nixon's 1974 Resignation to Retake House

March 27, 2018 in Blogs

By Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet

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Brennan Center analysts say Democrats need an 11 percent national popular voter margin to win 23 more House seats.

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On the eve of the Supreme Court hearing its second major gerrymandering case this term—a Democratic power play in Maryland to grab a House seat—new research on Republican extreme gerrymanders in swing states is underscoring that a blue turnout wave in November must be a political tsunami in order to retake the House majority.

“Because of [political district] maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in 2018 to gain control of the House of Representatives,” the report by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University Law School said. “To attain a bare majority, Democrats would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades. Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps.”

Gerrymandering is the practice of drawing political districts by segregating each major party’s reliable voters so the typical voter turnout favors one side. In 2011, the Republicans, in a plan overseen by a handful of top GOP operatives (including Karl Rove), targeted the mapmaking …read more


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