Bahrain: The Next Middle East Powder Keg?
June 28, 2019 in Economics
Ted Galen Carpenter
Worries about another war in the Middle East receded modestly
when President Donald Trump rejected the wishes of his hawkish
advisers and called off a planned airstrike on Iran for shooting
down a U.S. spy drone. However, his decision to impose new economic
sanctions on the Iranian regime has worsened already alarming tensions, and an
armed conflict remains a serious possibility. Iran also now has a
stronger incentive to cause maximum problems for the United States
and its key ally, Saudi Arabia.
The toxic U.S.-Iranian relationship is just one component of a
matrix of intense geo-strategic rivalries in the region. An
especially dangerous aspect is the Sunni-Shia religious and
political feud, which pits Iran, the leading Shia power, against
Saudi Arabia, a key Sunni power. That rivalry for regional
preeminence is already playing out in several arenas. It is a major
element in the Syrian civil war, the bloodbath in Yemen, and the
jockeying for political influence in Iraq.
Bahrain may be the next country in which Tehran and Riyadh
engage in a brass knuckle fight for dominance. The hostile,
deteriorating relationship between the United States and Iran
significantly increases the likelihood of an Iranian initiative.
Indeed, Bahrain is an ideal location for Tehran to give both
Washington and Riyadh bloody noses.
Our hypocritical policies
allow the autocratic monarchy (and the Saudis) to crack down on the
Shia there. Don’t be surprised if Iran steps in.
Bahrain’s religious composition creates an inherent powder keg.
Barely 20 percent of the country’s citizens are Sunni, while over
50 percent are Shia. Yet the government is a brutal autocracy under
the total control of a Sunni royal family. There was a major Shia uprising in 2011, and tensions
flared again with large anti-government demonstrations in May 2017.
Saudi Arabia intervened with several thousands of its own
troops in 2011 to keep its Sunni client regime in power, and Riyadh
has maintained a substantial, if relatively concealed, security
presence in the country since then. The Bahrain government has
imprisoned numerous Shia political activists, and only recently did
the king restore citizenship to more than 500 individuals whom the rubber-stamp
courts had stripped of that status. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and other organizations
have repeatedly issued reports condemning the regime in Manama for
human rights violations, including jailing critics and torturing them.
U.S. policy toward Bahrain reflects brazen hypocrisy. Even as
Obama administration officials routinely condemned Iran for
interference in the internal affairs of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,
Washington’s criticism …read more
Source: OP-EDS
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